Market and product

Nitrogen Outlook

Large ammonia capacity reductions in China, while capacity is expanding in North America, West Asia and EECA For the first time in a decade, due to the removal of close to 15 Mt of ammonia capacity in China in 2015-2016, capacity in East Asia will show virtually no net growth.

Global ammonia capacity would reach 230 Mt NH3 in 2020, expanding by 10% compared with 2015. Large increases in capacity are expected in Africa, North America and EECA.

Future nitrogen demand will present opportunities for exports to Latin America and South Asia Regional deficits are expected to further expand in South Asia, Latin America and Oceania, suggesting growing import demand for nitrogen products in all forms. Regional surpluses are seen as expanding in Africa, EECA and, to a lesser extent, West Asia.

Supply growth to exceed growth in nitrogen demand during the next five years Global supply and demand balances point to accelerating surpluses in 2017-2018, reaching a peak in 2018.

New urea capacity emerging in Africa, North America, and EECA, but decreasing in China Urea represents half of total nitrogen output and will contribute two-thirds of the projected ammonia capacity increment.

Global urea capacity is projected to increase by +10%, to 229 Mt in 2020. On a regional basis, Africa, North America and EECA will account for 70% of overall capacity growth.

Global urea supply is estimated at 208 Mt in 2020, growing at 2.5% p.a. over 2015.

Sustained 2% annual growth of urea demand thanks to rising consumption in Latin America and South Asia Global demand for urea for all uses is forecast to increase by 2% p,a. compared with 2015, to 192 Mt in 2020. Latin America and South Asia would each contribute close to half the global incremental demand.

A soft balance in the short term, moving to potential growing surpluses in the long term

Large potential surpluses are expected to persist during the next five years, reaching 8% of potential supply availability.

Phosphate Outlook

Large supply of phosphate rock emerging; no shortage in the near term Global phosphate rock supply would grow 11% compared with 2015, to reach 250 Mt of phosphate concentrate in 2020. Together Africa, Saudi Arabia and China would account for three-fifths of this 25 Mt increase.

Growing phosphoric acid capacity in three exporting countries Global phosphoric acid capacity in 2020 is projected to expand by 13% over 2015, to 65.3 Mt P2O5 in 2020. Large capacity additions would occur in Morocco, China and Saudi Arabia.

Stable potential surplus with respect to phosphoric acid-based fertilizers in the near

term The global supply of phosphoric acid would increase by 2.4% p.a. compared with 2015, while demand would grow at 2.5%, pointing to a stable potential surplus between 2015 and 2017 followed by a moderate increase towards 2020.

Massive capacity expansions in the next five years, with most being export-oriented Global capacity for the main processed phosphate fertilizers would grow by 7 Mt P2O5 between 2015 and 2020, to 52 Mt P2O5. Three exporting countries (Morocco, Saudi Arabia and China) would account for the bulk of the increase.

Potash Outlook

Large brownfield projects and six new mines to come on stream between 2016 and 2020 Global potassium capacity is forecast to grow by an overall 22% compared with 2015, to 64.5 Mt K2O in 2020, thanks to capacity projects in Canada, Russia, Turkmenistan, Belarus and, possibly, Ethiopia.

North America and EECA to account for 70% of world incremental potash supply between 2015 and 2020 Global potassium supply would increase to 51.6 Mt K2O in 2020, representing a net increment of 17% compared with 2015.

North America would account for 34% of global supply, followed by EECA (33%), East Asia (15%) and other regions (18%).

Moderate potash demand growth over five years Global demand for potassium for all uses would reach 43 Mt K2O in 2020, growing 2.1% p.a. compared with 2015.

Short-term equilibrium moving towards a growing surplus in the long run Between 2015 and 2020 global potash supply would grow by 17% and demand by 11%.

The global potash supply/demand balance shows a lower potential surplus in 2016, followed by a gradual increase in 2017.
Sulphur Outlook

New supply of exportable sulphur in West Asia and EECA Global sulphur production is projected to grow by 4% p.a. compared with 2015, reaching 72 Mt S in 2020. The largest increases in production will occur in the sulphur exporting regions of West Asia and EECA during the next five years, each at 6% p.a.

Moderate growth of global sulphur demand in the near term, but the current balance is shifting to potential surpluses Global consumption of elemental sulphur is projected to grow at an annual rate of 3% compared with 2015, reaching 69 Mt S in 2020.
The global supply/demand situation will shift from a near equilibrium condition in 2015 to the emergence of growing surplus towards 2020.