Market and product

Africa
Africa accounted for 3 percent of world fertilizer consumption in 2013. Its share in world consumption of nitrogen is 3.1 percent, phosphate 3.3 percent and potash 1.9 percent. The growth rate in demand for nitrogen, phosphate, and potash for fertilizer is expected to be 3.2, 2.7, and 7.8 percent, respectively, between 2014 and 2018. The fertilizer nutrient supply/demand balance indicates that the region would remain a major exporter of phosphate, followed by nitrogen. For potash, the region would continue to depend solely on import. Table 9 indicates fertilizer forecast for Africa for 2014 to 2018.

Africa fertilizer forecast, 2014-2018 (thousand tonnes)

North Africa

The share of North Africa in world consumption of nitrogen is 1.7 percent, phosphate 1.4 percent and potash 0.5 percent. The growth rate in demand for nitrogen, phosphate and potash for fertilizer is expected to be 2.0, 3.2 and 2.8 percent, respectively, between 2014 and 2018. Egypt and Morocco have the major share of nitrogen consumption in North Africa.

sub-Saharan Africa

The share of sub-Saharan Africa in world consumption of nitrogen is 1.5 percent, phosphate 1.9 percent and potash 1.4 percent. The growth rate in demand for nitrogen, phosphate and potash for fertilizer is expected to be 4.6, 2.3 and 9.4 percent, respectively, between 2014 and 2018. South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya and Ethiopia are the major users of fertilizers in sub-Saharan Africa.

Americas

Total fertilizer nutrient consumption in the Americas is 24.2 percent, of which North America constitutes 12.9 percent and Latin America and Caribbean 11.3 percent. The share of the Americas in world consumption of nitrogen is
19.7 percent, phosphate 27.3 percent and potash 36.6 percent. The region would continue to remain in potash surplus, but deficit in nitrogen and phosphate during the forecast period. Table 10 presents fertilizer forecast for the America region for 2014 to 2018.

North America

The share of North America in world consumption of nitrogen is 12.8 percent, phosphate 11.6 percent and potash 15.5 percent. The growth rate in demand for nitrogen and phosphate is expected to be 0.5 percent and 0.4 percent for potash between 2014 and 2018. The United States and Canada are major users of fertilizer in the region. The fertilizer nutrient supply/demand balance indicates that while supply will increase in the subregion, there will continue to be a reliance on nitrogen fertilizer imports. The potash balance of the region is expected to increase due to addition of potash capacity mainly in Canada.

The americas fertilizer forecast, 2014-2018 (thousand tonnes)

Latin America & Caribbean

The share of Latin America and Caribbean in world consumption of nitrogen is 7 percent, phosphate 15.7 percent, and potash 21 percent. The per annum growth in demand for nitrogen, phosphate and potash is expected to be at 3.3, 3.6 and 3.0 percent, respectively between 2014 and 2018. Brazil, Argentina, Mexico and Colombia constitute the major users of fertilizer in the region. The fertilizer nutrient supply/demand balance indicates that the region’s dependence on import of nitrogen, phosphate and potash will continue during the forecast period.

Asia

The Asia region is the largest consumer of fertilizer in the world. Total fertilizer nutrient consumption in Asia is 58.5 percent of the world total, the bulk of which is in East Asia and South Asia. The share of Asia in world consumption of nitrogen is 62.1 percent, phosphate 57.6 percent and potash 46.4 percent. The region’s dependence on imports of nitrogen and phosphate may reduce towards the end of the forecast period, but the region will still remain dependent on imports. The region would continue to remain in deficit with potash during the forecast period. Table 11 presents the fertilizer forecast for the Asia region for 2014 to 2018.

Asia fertilizer forecast, 2014-2018 (thousand tonnes)

West Asia

The share of West Asia in world consumption of nitrogen is 2.8 percent, phosphate 2.5 percent and potash 0.8 percent. Total fertilizer consumption in West Asia is forecast to grow by 3.2 percent per year from 2014 to 2018, reflecting a progressive rebound of demand in countries facing geopolitical instability. The demand for nitrogen, phosphate and potash is expected to grow by 2.1, 6.3 and 4.0 percent, respectively, during the period. The subregion is in surplus in all the three nutrients. It is a major contributor to the global nitrogen supply and a growingsupplier of phosphate products.

South Asia

Fertilizer consumption in South Asia has been increasing at a fast pace. It is the second largest fertilizer consuming region in the world. Its share in world consumption of nitrogen, phosphate and potash is 19.8, 18.4 and 9.1 percent, respectively. Nitrogen, phosphate, potash consumption is expected to grow at 1.7, 3.6 and 4.9 percent, respectively, per annum during 2014 to 2018. This outlook may be strongly influenced by the evolution of the fertilizer subsidy regimes in India. The deficit for the three nutrients will increase during the forecast period for the subregion.

East Asia

The East Asia subregion is the largest fertilizer producing and consuming region in the world. Any development in East Asia and South Asia in regard to fertilizer application affects the global demand/supply situation significantly. The share of East Asia in global consumption of total fertilizer nutrients is 38.4 percent. The share of the subregion in nitrogen consumption is 39.5 percent, phosphate 36.7 percent and potash 36.6 percent. Nitrogen, phosphate and potash consumption is expected to grow at 1.0, 1.2 and 2.6 percent, respectively, per annum during 2014 to 2018. There is expected to be growth in nitrogen capacity in the subregion, however increases in demand will keep the subregion dependent on imports. The potash supply in the region continues to be far lower than the demand. With the increasing demand for potash, import demand would grow significantly during the period. The subregion would, however, continue to be a net exporter of phosphate during the period.

Europe

The fertilizer forecasts for the Europe region as a whole are provided in Table 12. Europe’s share in global consumption of total fertilizer nutrients is about 12.5 percent. The share of the region in nitrogen fertilizer consumption is 13.5 percent, phosphate 9.0 percent and potash 14.0 percent. Nitrogen consumption is expected to increase by 1.1 percent, while phosphate and potash consumption are expected to grow in the region at 2.3 and 2.1 percent, respectively, per annum during 2014 to 2018. The region has sufficient exportable surplus of nitrogen and potash while the potential balance of phosphate is very small. The potential balance of nitrogen is expected to increase from 12 500 000 tonnes in 2014 to 15 300 000 tonnes in 2018. The potential balance of phosphate may reduce from 452 000 tonnes in 2014 to 256 000 tonnes in 2018. The potential balance of potash is expected to rise consistently from 12 600 000 tonnes in 2014 to 14 900 000 tonnes in 2018.

Europe fertilizer forecast, 2014-2018 (thousand tonnes)

Central Europe

The share of Central Europe in nitrogen consumption is 2.5 percent, phosphate 1.7 percent and potash 2.3 percent. Nitrogen, phosphate and potash consumption is expected to grow in the subregion at 1.7, 3.7 and 3.1 percent, respectively, per annum during 2014 to 2018. The subregion will continue to have an exportable surplus of nitrogen of about 1 800 000 to 1 900 000 tonnes during the forecast period. However, it will continue to depend on imports of phosphate and potash.

West Europe

The share of West Europe in nitrogen consumption is 7.3 percent, phosphate 4.5 percent and potash 7.2 percent. The consumption of nitrogen in the subregion is expected to decline marginally by 0.3 percent per annum during 2014 to 2018. The consumption of phosphate and potash is expected to grow in the subregion at 0.1 and 0.8 percent, respectively, per annum during 2014 to 2018. The subregion has an exportable surplus of potash of about 1 400 000 tonnes in 2014, which is expected to decline marginally by the end of the forecast period. However, it will continue to depend on imports of nitrogen and phosphate.

East Europe and Central Asia

The share of East Europe and Central Asia in nitrogen consumption is 3.7 percent, phosphate 2.9 percent and potash 4.5 percent. The consumption of nitrogen, phosphate and potash is expected to grow in the subregion at 3.3, 4.5 and 3.7 percent, respectively, per annum during 2014 to 2018. The subregion will continue to remain in surplus in all the three nutrients during the forecast period. The surplus of nitrogen may increase from about 13 900 000 tonnes in 2014 to 17 000 000 tonnes in 2018. Similarly, the surplus of potash is anticipated to rise from 12 000 000 tonnes in 2014 to 14 500 000 tonnes in 2018. The phosphate surplus in the subregion would remain
at around 2 500 000 tonnes during the forecast period.

Oceania

The share of Oceania in world consumption of total fertilizer nutrients is only 1.7 percent. The share of the subregion in nitrogen consumption is 1.5 percent, phosphate 2.7 percent and potash 1.1 percent. Nitrogen consumption is likely to increase in the region by 1.2 percent, while consumption of phosphate and potash is likely to increase by 0.4 and 0.9 percent respectively, per year during 2014 to 2018. The region would continue to be in deficit of nitrogen, phosphate and potash during the forecast period.

Oceania fertilizer forecast, 2014-2018 (thousand tonnes)