Market and product

Sustained potash demand over five years

Potash capacity has continued to be developed worldwide, but at a slower pace ince 2011. About 20 expansion projects are being carried out by established producers for completion between 2014 and 2018.

Only three greenfield projects are planned for completion before 2019, in Canada and Russia. Global potassium capacity is forecast to increase from 49.7 Mt K₂O in 2013 to 60.7 Mt in 2018.

North America and EECA to account for 88% of world incremental supply between 2013 and 2018

Global potential potassium supply would increase to 51.4 Mt K₂O in 2018, representing an overall increment of 8.8 Mt, or 20.7% growth over 2013. Three regions would account for nearly all the projected increase of potential supply: North America (mainly Canada), would contribute 4.6 Mt K2O, followed by Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) (Russia and Belarus) with 3.4 Mt and East Asia (China) with 0.8 Mt. Expansions in the first two regions are earmarked for the export arkets.

Sustained potash demand over five years

Global demand for potassium is estimated at 38.3 Mt K₂O in 2018, equating to an average annual growth rate of 3.0% between 2013 and 2018.

World potash demand would expand at an average annual rate of 1.6 Mt MOP p.a.between 2013 and 2018.

Short – term equilibrium moving towards a growing surplus in the long run

Global demand would grow in parallel with supply until 2016. By 2017 the annual incremental supply would accelerate and start to exceed global demand growth.

Under a slow – growth scenario, the five – year global supply and demand would show relatively stable potential surpluses of 9 – 10 Mt K₂O between 2013 and 2017, followed by an increase to 11.5 Mt in 2018, equating to 23% of projected supply.