Market and product
China MEG prices at almost 20-month low on high stocks
Weakness in the domestic market pressured down the import price of MEG to$916/mt CFR China Monday, down $14/mt from last Friday and the lowest levelseen since July 26, 2012, when it was assessed at $911/mt.
The price of MEG in the domestic China market was assessed Monday at Yuan6,700/mt ex-tank, down Yuan 25/mt from last Friday, and at the lowest sinceJuly 11, 2012, when it was assessed at Yuan 6,675/mt.
High stocks and cash liquidity issues were behind the sell-off in thedomestic market, which in turn pressured down import prices, sources said.
Market sources said there was over 1 million mt of MEG stored in tanksin China at present, 30-60% higher than usual levels of 600,000-800,000 mt.
The stocks built up due to the annual slowdown in derivatives productionduring the Lunar New Year holiday, but have failed to clear this year as theusual pick-up in demand as downstream plants reopen has yet to emerge.
However, market participants said this lag was likely to be short-lived,with buying activity likely to start picking up over the next few weeks andthe stocks likely to return to normal levels by late March or April.
"There are low inventories at polyester factories, and they should berestocking now after the holidays," a MEG producer said.
"Once they restart, it will be pretty easy to digest these stocks. Chinaconsumes around 1 million mt every month and derivatives producers have roomto hike run rates. In January-February, polymer operating rates were only65-75%, whereas last year on average run rates were 81%," the producer added.
In addition, April and May are regarded as the high season for thepolyester chain, and MEG producers are hopeful this will help them survivethrough March amid low or even negative margins.
Ethylene prices have been firming recently due to tightening supply amidplanned and unplanned outages in Asia.
In particular, CPC's N6 cracker in Taiwan and Asahi Kasei's cracker inJapan are currently undergoing scheduled maintenance, while Thailand's PTT hasshut its ethane-fed cracker for maintenance and its naphtha-fed cracker due toa technical glitch.
Sources said if MEG production margins -- which are negative based oncurrent spot prices, but close to breakeven based on contract prices -- wereto be squeezed further, MEG producers may consider reducing run rates.
MEG run rates in Asia are in a region of 80% at present, sources said.
