Market and product

Domestic fertilizer prices have started to edge up since late February 2026, putting pressure on agricultural production costs. However, supply remains ensured thanks to prior self-sufficiency and proactive import activities.

Mr. Nguyen Quang Hieu, Deputy Director General of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection (Ministry of Agriculture and Environment), stated that in the short term, the biggest risk is not a shortage of supply.

In an interview with Tuoi Tre, Mr. Hieu noted that prices of several fertilizers such as urea, DAP, potassium, and SA have begun to rise, increasing input cost pressures for agricultural production.
The impact is most evident in fertilizer-intensive sectors such as rice, coffee, fruit trees, and vegetables, where production costs rise in line with input price fluctuations.

Vietnam is largely self-sufficient in urea and phosphate fertilizers, while imports of potassium, NPK, and SA in 2025 and the first two months of 2026 (before the Middle East conflict) were higher than the same period previously, helping ensure adequate market supply. Therefore, the main pressure comes from international developments that may increase production costs.

The Middle East is the world’s largest exporter of urea, with around 20 million tons per year, accounting for about 35% of global seaborne urea trade. It also supplies 45–50% of globally traded sulfur, a key input for phosphate fertilizer production.

As a result, when prices of oil, natural gas, sulfur, and transportation increase, global fertilizer prices tend to rise accordingly, affecting the domestic market to a certain extent.

Supply remains secured in the short term

What is the current fertilizer production capacity, and can it meet domestic demand?

– Currently, Vietnam’s fertilizer production capacity is relatively large and largely meets domestic demand for key fertilizer types. Total production and packaging capacity is about 21 million tons per year, including around 5 million tons of organic and biological fertilizers and about 16 million tons of inorganic fertilizers.

For basic inorganic fertilizers, total production capacity is about 5.49 million tons per year, including approximately 2.73 million tons of urea, 2.0 million tons of phosphate fertilizers, 0.74 million tons of DAP and MAP, along with a small amount of potassium sulfate.

With this capacity, domestic urea and phosphate fertilizers fully meet internal demand and can even be exported when market conditions are favorable.

However, Vietnam does not have natural resources for potassium and SA and does not produce them domestically, thus remaining fully dependent on imports. For DAP, domestic production meets about 60% of demand, with the remainder imported.

Overall, fertilizer supply for domestic agricultural production remains secured, while the main issue to monitor closely is fluctuations in raw material prices and the international market.

If the Middle East conflict continues, will Vietnam face shortages of raw materials for fertilizer production?

– According to the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, in the short term there is no basis to conclude that there will be widespread shortages of fertilizer production inputs. However, if the conflict persists, the global fertilizer market may experience localized shortages of certain key materials.

For Vietnam, raw materials for urea and phosphate production are largely domestically secured, as they rely on natural gas, coal, and domestic apatite ore. Major urea plants have also prepared production plans, stockpiled materials, and scheduled maintenance to ensure stable operations in 2026.

However, some fertilizers such as DAP, MAP, NPK, and potassium fertilizers still partly depend on imported inputs such as ammonia, sulfur, SA, and KCl. These materials are influenced by international markets, with the Middle East being a key supply region.

Currently, many enterprises have proactively stockpiled raw materials, so short-term impacts remain limited.

Applying the “4R” nutrient stewardship principle

Is there consideration of restricting exports if the Middle East conflict persists?

– One key policy direction is to ensure a balance between domestic supply and demand, maintain stable operations of production plants, and enhance market transparency to prevent speculation and price manipulation.

At the same time, authorities will coordinate with the Ministry of Industry and Trade and relevant agencies to closely monitor fertilizer exports, ensuring priority supply for the domestic market, especially during peak agricultural seasons.

If global markets fluctuate sharply or there is a risk of domestic supply-demand imbalance, regulatory authorities will consider appropriate measures in accordance with the law, including trade and market regulation tools.

However, at present, domestic fertilizer supply remains stable, so there is no immediate need for strong administrative measures such as export restrictions. Instead, the focus remains on closely monitoring market developments and maintaining flexible management.

What recommendations would you give to localities and farmers to ensure efficient production while reducing costs amid rising input prices?

– We recommend that local authorities and producers strengthen the adoption of efficient and economical fertilizer use practices, while improving farming efficiency to reduce input costs.

First, farmers should follow the “4R” principle in fertilizer application: the right type, the right rate, the right time, and the right method. Balanced and appropriate fertilization not only helps reduce costs but also improves nutrient efficiency and minimizes environmental impacts.

In addition, the use of organic fertilizers—especially those derived from agricultural by-products and livestock waste—should be promoted to improve soil fertility and reduce reliance on inorganic fertilizers.

Farmers should also adopt advanced practices such as “3 reductions, 3 increases,” “1 must, 5 reductions,” the System of Rice Intensification (SRI), and proper nutrient management. Participating in cooperatives and production linkages can also help farmers access quality fertilizers at more reasonable costs.

From the management side, the Department will continue coordinating with local authorities to enhance technical training, promote organic fertilizer development, and encourage efficient fertilizer use, thereby reducing costs and improving production efficiency.