Market and product

Compiled by Bao Hien

In contrast to signs of easing in the urea market following China’s relaxation of export restrictions, the sulfur market—the essential raw material for producing sulfuric acid and phosphate fertilizers—is undergoing its most severe crisis in nearly two decades, forcing major fertilizer producers to cut or temporarily halt production.

Prices Surge More Than 1,000%, Far Exceeding Previous Industry Records

According to Ben Pratt, Mosaic Company’s Vice President of Government and Public Affairs, one of the world’s largest phosphate fertilizer producers, sulfur prices have now risen far beyond any level he has seen during his 15 years with the company. Throughout that period, sulfur prices typically ranged between US$100 and US$300 per ton. But now, amid the combined impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other geopolitical conflicts, prices have surpassed US$1,000 per ton—more than five times the upper end of their previous range.

Data from S&P Global indicates an even more severe situation: Mosaic’s sulfur costs have risen by nearly 1,100%, from around US$100 per ton to more than US$1,200 per ton. The company describes this as the most severe sulfur supply crisis the industry has experienced since 2008. According to data compiled by Oklahoma Farm Report, prices rose from around US$400–450 per ton in early March 2026 to more than US$1,000 per ton by mid-summer, indicating that the price surge has continued for months rather than being a short-lived shock.

Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters So Much to the Sulfur Market

According to analysis by CERA experts at S&P Global, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has turned an already tight sulfur market into a full-scale supply crisis. It has effectively eliminated a trade route that normally carries 40,000–50,000 tons of sulfur per day and disrupted nearly 47% of global seaborne sulfur exports. Even before the conflict erupted, sulfur supplies were already tight due to strong demand from the mining industry, which uses sulfuric acid to extract metals, as well as prolonged export restrictions imposed by major producers such as China and Russia.

Brazil has been particularly hard hit because of its heavy dependence on imported sulfur and sulfuric acid. According to CERA, the Middle East accounted for as much as 42% of Brazil’s sulfur imports in 2025, while alternative supplies from Canada are becoming increasingly constrained because much of its output had been committed in advance.

Producers Forced to Shut Down Plants as Operations Become Unprofitable

In response to the sharp increase in input costs, major phosphate fertilizer producers have been forced to cut production on a broad scale. According to Pratt, Mosaic has temporarily halted operations at several facilities, including a plant in Louisiana, partially suspended operations at its large Bartow facility in Florida, and halted almost all phosphate fertilizer production in Brazil because production is no longer profitable at current sulfur prices. Earlier, on May 11, 2026, the company withdrew its full-year 2026 phosphate production guidance and announced that it was reassessing operating rates for the second half of the year.

Nutrien, another major fertilizer producer, has also warned that higher sulfur and other input costs have put pressure on profit margins and forced the company to reduce phosphate operating rates globally.

The Scale of the Shortfall Relative to Global Demand

According to Pratt, the global phosphate fertilizer market consumes approximately 75 million tons per year. This figure provides a reference point for assessing the severity of the current production cuts resulting from sulfur shortages. Agricultural economists at the University of Illinois’ farmdoc daily noted that higher phosphate fertilizer prices linked directly to the conflict in Iran are likely to raise fertilizer costs for the 2027 crop season, although public attention had previously focused more heavily on nitrogen fertilizers than on phosphate fertilizers.

Outlook: A Structural Problem That Will Be Difficult to Resolve Quickly

According to Nick Paulson, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, because sulfur refining and processing infrastructure cannot be restored quickly, pressure on sulfur prices is likely to persist for years rather than being resolved in the short term. Although the United States produces a significant amount of sulfur domestically, its market remains exposed to global commodity price shocks. Notably, according to analysis by Oklahoma Farm Report, the full impact of sulfur prices at US$1,000 per ton may not yet have been fully reflected in current retail DAP and MAP prices, suggesting that retail phosphate fertilizer prices could continue to rise rather than having already peaked.