SDIC Anxin Futures pointed out that the price of smoked sheet rubber in Thailand has plummeted, and the price of domestically produced latex has risen slightly; China’s Yunnan rubber-producing areas will enter a shutdown period, Hainan will enter a production reduction period; India, Indonesia and other rubber-producing countries will continue to suffer severe epidemics; Shan Xiaozeng. The fundamentals have not changed, but the price difference between tobacco sheet glue and other varieties is too large, and the price premium is too large. Short-term operation is appropriate.
Huatai Futures said that the price of rubber remained strong and volatile yesterday, and there was a sharp drop in the night trading. The fundamentals are mainly that the seasonal rains in Thailand will affect the short-term rubber tapping volume and continue to increase the price of raw materials, but the impact of floods has not occurred. It is only a warmer market atmosphere and the market’s subsequent supply concerns. With the decrease in rainfall in the second half of this week, the sentiment has slowed down and the night market has fallen sharply. At present, the price of raw materials at home and abroad is firm, still giving strong support to the cost of rubber. The latest data released this week showed that the domestic Qingdao port inventory continued to decline slightly, mainly due to the continued decline in out-of-zone inventory, the bonded warehouse maintained a slight growth momentum, and the total inventory still showed a high trend of decline. Overall, there are no major negative factors. The main reason is that the non-standard period current spread continues to expand, giving the disk pressure to be suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being.
Guosen Futures believes that the price of rubber in the night market has fallen sharply. The tire terminal market performed poorly. Seasonal demand became more obvious in the off-season, and the trade link was more cautious. Some tire dealers plan to withdraw funds in advance. On the whole, the continued increase in raw material prices will continue to put pressure on tire production costs. Although the upward trend of tire prices has a strong push, terminal demand will also drag prices upward. Technically, the market outlook for the rubber price may maintain a shock operation in the range of 14000-15500. Operation suggestion: Operation with the idea of interval oscillation.
China Investment Futures said that China is the world’s largest natural rubber importer, with an import dependence of about 85%. The main sources of imports are Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia, all of which are RCEP members. The China Rubber Industry Association has been calling for the reduction of import tariffs on natural rubber, but China still implements relatively high tariffs on natural rubber imports. In the context of the high tariffs imposed on natural rubber, rubber varieties with local characteristics such as mixed rubber and composite rubber have emerged. In 2009, China reduced taxes to ASEAN countries by varying degrees. Except for Vietnam to maintain 5%, the agreed tax rates of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries were reduced to 0%. As mixed rubber and compound rubber are under the zero-tariff program of the ASEAN Agreement, in order to avoid tariffs, the domestic tire manufacturing industry has to use such low-quality and high-priced raw materials to produce automobile tires, which seriously hinders the high-quality development of the industry. The RCEP has been formally signed. With the progress of work related to the agreement on tariff concessions, it is possible for China to lower or even cancel natural rubber import tariffs in the future. If China’s natural rubber import tariffs are gradually reduced to zero, the downstream tire industry will lose the need for tax avoidance, and low-quality and high-priced hybrid rubber will have no competitive advantage over standard rubber and will eventually withdraw from the historical stage of the rubber market. Of course, the zero-tariff assumption will have a certain impact on China’s domestic natural rubber industry in the short term, but in the long run, breaking the tariff barrier will help correct the abnormal price difference between domestic and foreign markets and fix the problem of high domestic full latex spot prices.
According to the analysis of Ruida Futures, the Yunnan production area has been shut down one after another, and the price of raw materials has remained stable; the Hainan production area is expected to enter the shutdown period in mid-to-late December, and some factories have reserves expectations. The direction of thick milk will continue to increase in the direction of full milk but the rate will shrink narrow. The Southeast Asian production areas are still in a high-yield period recently, and the rainfall in southern Thailand has increased, which has a certain impact on rubber tapping. In terms of inventory, after the delivery of the old rubber, the inventory of the new rubber warehouse receipt is at a historical low level, and the lack of delivery products continues to affect the future price. The rubber inventory in Qingdao has continued to decline recently, and the spot inventory pressure has eased slightly. From the demand side, all-steel tire factories have sufficient foreign trade orders and insufficient inventory of products sold in the previous period. Most factories started operating at a relatively high level. However, the impact of foreign trade capacity shortage on later exports may limit the increase in tire factory operating rate. On the disk, the ru2105 contract closed up slightly, short-term attention to the pressure near the previous high point, it is recommended to trade in the 15450-16000 interval; the nr2102 contract focuses on the support near 10950, and it is recommended to trade in the 10950-11400 interval. - Global Rubber Markets -