Nitrogen Outlook
Global ammonia capacity will be affected by plant closures in China
Global ammonia capacity is projected to expand by 3% (a net 7 Mt NH3), from 225 Mt in 2017 to 232 Mt NH3 in 2022. Large capacity increases are expected to come on stream in Africa, South Asia and EECA. The restructuring planned in China’s nitrogen industry will lead to a massive closure of ammonia capacity.
The nitrogen supply/demand imbalance would be reduced after 2020
Between 2017 and 2022, global nitrogen supply would expand by an average of 0.6% p.a. with a 1.2% annual increase in demand. The prevalent surplus would peak in 2019 and start to decline gradually by 2020/21, as growth in supply slows towards 2022. The key driver of change would then be the reduced nitrogen capacity in China.
Growth in nitrogen demand presents opportunities for higher regional imports
Regional nitrogen demand would grow in all regions except Europe. The largest increases are projected in South Asia, Latin America and Southeast Asia.
Urea capacity will increase in the short term, with new incremental growth emerging after 2020
Urea accounted for 55% of nitrogen production in 2017. Global urea capacity is projected to increase by a net 10 Mt (+5%) to 226 Mt in 2022.
Although urea capacity is projected to decline in China, new capacity will emerge in South Asia, Africa and EECA.
The imbalance between urea supply and demand would decrease towards 2022
Global urea supply (effective capacity) is estimated at 197 Mt in 2022, growing by 1.1% p.a compared with 2017.
Global demand for urea for all uses is forecast to increase by 1.6% p.a. to 188 Mt in 2022. Urea demand would increase in virtually every region.
Phosphate Outlook
The phosphate rock supply is increasing, with no shortage anticipated in the near future
The global phosphate rock supply is projected to grow by 9% compared with 2017, to 250 Mt in 2022. Africa and West Asia would together account for 80% of the net increase.
Supply and demand would both increase moderately in the near term
Global phosphoric acid capacity would increase by 6% compared with 2017, to 64.3 Mt P2O5 in 2022.
Global processed phosphates capacity is projected to increase by 3%, or 14 Mt products, to 112 Mt products in 2022. Morocco will account for one-third of the increase.
The global supply of phosphoric acid would increase by 1.9% p.a. compared with 2017, while demand would grow at 1.7% p.a. The potential surplus would increase marginally until 2019 and then plateau until 2022.
Potash Outlook
Continuing capacity growth between 2018 and 2022
Global potassium capacity is forecast to grow by an overall 10%, to 64.6 Mt K2O in 2022. Capacity would mostly expand in EECA, North America and China while decreasing in Europe.
North America and EECA will account for 70% of potential potash supply
Global potassium supply would increase to 54.2 Mt K2O in 2022, a net increment of 8 Mt K2O or 17% growth compared with 2017. North America will be the region with the largest potential supply in 2022 (36%), followed by EECA (34%), East Asia (13%) and other regions (17%).
Moderate potash demand growth will lead to an increasing potential imbalance
Global demand for potassium for all uses would grow at 2% p.a. to 46.2 Mt K2O in 2022. Potential global potash supply/demand conditions show a doubling of the potential annual surplus between 2017 to 2022 (8 Mt K2O).
Expansion of regional deficits would support a sustained increase in potash trade by 2022
More than one-third of the near-term projected increase in demand will occur in East Asia. Rapid growth in imports is expected in South Asia, Latin America and Africa. - Source: IFA -