Fertilizer producer Nutrien increased its 2025 potash sales volume guidance 14 million-14.5 million metric tons, reflecting the continued strength of global demand and consistent with the company's historical share of global shipments, it said in its third-quarter earnings call on Nov. 6.
The company pointed to record-high crop production prospects as a key demand driver for its fertilizer products. Brazilian soybean acreage is expected to increase this year, while expectations of a second corn crop acreage increase in Brazil could support crop input demand, while strong farmer returns are expected in Australia, the company said.
Although the guidance for 2025 was revised higher, the company's potash sales in the third quarter were lower on the year despite strong engagement with Nutrien's North American summer fill program, totaling 4,095 million mt, compared to 4,152 million mt in Q3 2024.
Additionally, the company maintained its 2025 global potash shipment forecast of 73 million to 75 million mt, reflecting the upward revision made in Q2.
"Offshore sales volumes in the third quarter and first nine months of 2025 were higher, supported by strong potash affordability and underlying consumption growth in key offshore markets," the company said.
Nutrien expects global demand growth to continue, forecasting global potash shipments between 74 million-77 million mt in 2026, "supported by favorable affordability and low projected channel inventories in major markets," the company said. "We anticipate limited new global capacity additions in 2026 with announced project delays."
Platts, part of S&P Global Commodity Insights, assessed Vancouver FOB granular potash at $319-$326/st FOB on Nov. 4.
In the meantime, the company is focusing on initiating a review of strategic alternatives for its phosphate business, addressing nitrogen operations in Trinidad and Tobago, as well as developing an improvement plan in Brazil.
Nitrogen operations
The company's 2025 nitrogen sales volume guidance of 10.7 million-11 million mt assumes no additional sales volumes from its Trinidad operations, impacted by a controlled shutdown of its Trinidad Nitrogen facility on Oct. 23 due to port access uncertainty and a lack of reliable and economic natural gas supply.
"We're working with the Trinidad government to determine what those optimal operating conditions might be, assessing our path forward," Ken Seitz, Nutrien's President and CEO said in the call.
Nutrien is not expected to maintain the shutdown into 2026, Seitz said during the conference call.
Its nitrogen sales volumes increased in the third quarter and in the first nine months of 2025, driven by strong demand and higher production of ammonia and upgraded nitrogen products. Additionally, the rising Henry Hub gas benchmark supported prices, the company said.
"Global ammonia markets are expected to remain tight due to plant outages and project delays," the company said. "We anticipate the pace of Chinese urea exports will slow in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the emergence of seasonal demand to support market fundamentals."
Nutrien expects a 2% growth in global nitrogen demand in 2025 and supply-related challenges to maintain a tight supply and demand balance going into 2026.
Phosphate operations
Nutrien's 2025 phosphate sales volume guidance of 2.35 million-2.55 million mt assumes higher operating rates and sales volumes in Q4 compared to the year-ago period.
"Our phosphate operations achieved an 88% operating rate in Q3 as reliability and turnaround activities completed in the first half led to a significant improvement in performance," Mark Thompson, VP and CFO, said.
The phosphate market is expected to remain tight due to limited supply, including from Chinese export restrictions, as the global shipments in 2025 have been constrained by supply availability, and weaker affordability for phosphate fertilizer has impacted demand, the company said.
Phosphate sales volumes rose in Q3 mainly due to higher production volumes compared to 2024, which was impacted by weather-related events and strong demand for purified phosphoric acid.
However, Nutrien's sales volumes in the first three quarters of 2025 were lower on the year due to decreased production volumes in Q1.
The company is also conducting a review of strategic alternatives for its phosphate business, which could include reconfiguring operations, strategic partnerships or a potential sale, intended to solidify the optimal path for 2026.
"At our June 2024 Investor Day, we talked about this focused approach to simplify our portfolio with the focus really being on quality of earnings and free cash flow over the long term," Seitz said. "We produce phosphate out of White Springs and Aurora facilities, but it only contributes about 6% of our [earnings before income, taxes, depreciation and amortization]."
The company also highlighted US domestic supply security for the phosphate critical mineral, citing global trends and developments in the phosphate market.
"For the reconfigured operations, looking at life of mine at both White Springs Aurora, we are assessing the best way to exploit the remaining reserves," Seitz said. "There are also additional reserves in the area."