Oil steadied after the biggest weekly loss since early October, as traders weighed the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal that could increase crude flows into an already well-supplied market.
Brent held above $62 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $58. After US-Ukrainian talks on Sunday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the session had been productive, although President Donald Trump’s proposed Nov. 27 deadline to secure Kyiv’s support could drift into the next week. Separately, Andriy Yermak, a top aide of Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said there was an “updated and refined framework document on peace.”
Crude has slumped this year, with futures on course for a fourth monthly loss in October, in what would be the longest losing run since 2023. The decline has been driven by expanded global output, including from OPEC+, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record surplus for 2026. Traders are monitoring whether a deal on Ukraine will materialize, and if sanctions on Russia will be lifted — developments that could inject more supply.
“If we do reach an agreement here, and it’s a very big if, the global glut gets a lot worse once sanctions are removed,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac Banking Corp, who sees Brent capped above $65 a barrel, and headed lower into 2026. “This week will all be about the ebb and flow of European, Ukrainian and US commentary on how the peace plan is evolving.”
Still, obstacles to a deal remain, including concern among European leaders that the initial proposed framework is too generous toward Moscow. Together with other allies, they told the US in a statement released at the G20 summit in South Africa that the plan for Ukraine needed “additional work.”
Beyond the Ukraine conflict, traders were also tracking events in the Middle East. Israel said it killed Abu Ali Al-Tabtabai — Hezbollah chief of general staff, and the group’s No. 2 — in a rare airstrike on Beirut, as an almost year-old ceasefire deal with the Lebanese government wavers.
Some closely watched metrics show near-term conditions becoming less tight. The prompt spread for WTI — the difference between its two nearest contracts — is 25 cents a barrel in backwardation, less than half the gap a month ago.
Looking ahead, key members at OPEC and its allies are set to meet Nov. 30 to assess policy. The group has been reactivating idled capacity to recapture market share, but has signaled a pause for the first quarter of 2026. – Source: Bloomberg